The First Obama Administration

A somber Obama knows what he is getting into, and he is smart enough not to make predictions. I, on the other hand… So here goes.

On the bright side:

1.       The U.S. will get out of Iraq.

2.       The wealthy will pay more taxes, the poor and middle class a bit less, and this is fair. (By the way, progressive income tax means wealth redistribution.)

3.       Expect better management of government resources and significant investment in infrastructure and alternative energy.  

4.       Accordingly, there will be less corruption as the Obama administration appoints competent managers who have some scruples.

5.       U.S. relations with its allies and enemies will improve – with allies because an Obama administration will listen, with enemies because the enemies have less money.

6.       Roe v. Wade will remain the law of the land.

7.       The Department of Justice and Environmental Protection Agency will be reformed, reinvigorated and once again take up the tasks of defending our legal rights and the environment. (Now if we could only get Obama to do away with the Department of Homeland Security so that the Armed Forces, the FBI and the CIA could do the job they are supposed to do without another political hack sticking his nose in and multiplying the costs and the threats to our civil liberties. )

8.       Foreign graduate students will flock to U.S universities; we welcome scientists because our basic education system stinks and we don't produce them ourselves. We have the developed world's worst primary and secondary education alongside the best universities.

9.       We will have a President who can string together a few sentences and is not ashamed of Latinate words – and knows what "Latinate" means.

On the dark side – (longer explanations are required)

1.       Disappointment among  African-Americans. Changing social-cultural life patterns among African-Americans is not within the purview of Obama's mandate. He would be better off deferring to Bill Cosby, actor-comedian, and Alvin Poussaint, Harvard Medical School professor, co-authors of  "Come on People! On the Path from Victims to Victors". Like Cosby and Poussaint, I have argued for years that the problems of social structure that plague the African-American community will not be fixed by government. I have not, however, argued that they could not  be fixed by government. Such government remedies would be too "socialist" for Americans to swallow. Today, most Americans believe it is up to the African-American community to solve its problems. Fair or not, the success of Asians is pointed to by many as an example the right path for ethnic communities.  

2.       One problem millions of Americans cannot fix on their own woefully inadequate health care. Unfortunately, children and the working poor will continue to have substandard health care despite reform. Obama's health care proposals are inadequate. We need to separate health care from the work place. Firms should not be asked to provide workers with health insurance. Health care costs should be covered by general tax revenues with individuals and companies paying their taxes. We also need community health services. Health care for poor is appalling and is likely to remain so.

3.       Education will improve only slightly. Education is managed locally in the United States, and there is relatively little the federal government can do while local school districts teach Creationism and waste billions. The federal government cannot protect children from a culture that discourages effort and achievement at school. Too many Americans are comfortable with a social structure in which most are dolts, and the educated are somehow special.

4.       We are likely to get bogged down in Afghanistan. The Chinese, the Indians, the Russians and even the Iranians have more to worry about from Muslim fundamentalist terrorism that the United States. Shifting U.S. foreign policy to a truly collaborative approach is still a long way off.

5.       Managing the financial sector will be a giant headache. Consolidation makes surviving banks even more arrogant. Consolidation is bad in itself. We need more banks, not fewer banks. We ought to encourage community banks and set up rules that make sure that retail banking is tied once again to the real economy. This will not happen.

6.       The auto industry will continue to be badly managed and will waste the $25 billion in soft loans it has received from the Bush Administration. Obama will need to strong arm the industry to turn it around. This is a top priority, one without a very happy solution.

7.       In 2010, if there is a return to economic growth, we can expect higher oil prices. We will be unprepared despite the best efforts of the Obama administration. Investment in infrastructure and alternative energy though significant, will be insufficient. There will be limited progress on global warming and Obama will lose support among environment groups. Maybe even Al Gore will say something unpleasant.

8.       In 2010, if there is NO return to economic growth, expect screaming and yelling and disastrous mid-term Congressional election results for the Democrats. Maybe even Paul Krugman will say something unpleasant.

9.      In 2011, Jed Bush meets with Cuban exiles in Miami. Peppering his talk with Spanish phrases, Bush announces his candidacy for the Republican Presidential nomination on the day in which Obama's approval rating falls below 50%. He cites a litany of Obama failures – turmoil in Iraq, violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, rising oil prices, in Cuba a paid mob burns down the old Guantanomo base. He praises brother George W. Bush for keeping America safe and for pursuing victory in Iraq. Today, he says, America's reputation has been stained by defeat and chaos in Iraq. Bin Laden is still on the loose. Terrorism is on the rise in Asia and Europe. Two American cities have suffered minor attacks. He promises an end to the disorder and a return to the true American values.

 … And so, last night as I discussed with my daughters Obama and what his election means, I told them that his race was now irrelevant. We have big problems to work on in the United States. All I ask for is consistent progress; all Obama is asking for is commitment and patience. It's a fair deal.

Comments

[Vernita Hill]

In general, I think it's a little too early to be making such sweeping predictions as those, but I happen to agree with a lot of them, especially on the biggest promise: Health Care. All those folks who were expecting a new kind of Federal health insurance in Florida are going to be sorely disappointed on that issue.